Strategy considerations from Global to International M&A

What Is “Fully Globalized Deal-Making” in M&A?

“Fully globalized deal-making” refers to an era in M&A where companies, private equity firms, and investors pursued deals anywhere in the world without major geopolitical, regulatory, or economic barriers.

In this environment, businesses and capital flowed seamlessly across borders, and deal rationales were primarily economic and financial, rather than shaped by government intervention or national security concerns.

This approach was based on the idea that:
1. Capital seeks the best returns globally, regardless of geography.
2. Supply chains are optimized globally, with manufacturing, R&D, and distribution spread across multiple continents.
3. Regulatory environments were relatively open, allowing companies to acquire foreign targets without excessive government scrutiny.

Why Is This Era Ending?

From 2020 to 2025, a combination of geopolitical tensions, economic nationalism, supply chain disruptions, and regulatory restrictions has shifted M&A away from fully globalized deal-making toward a more regional and country-specific approach.

Key reasons include:
• US-China trade war (restrictions on Chinese acquisitions in sensitive industries).
• Stronger FDI (Foreign Direct Investment) screening in the US, EU, India, and Australia.
• COVID-19 supply chain disruptions, leading to nearshoring and localization.
• Energy security concerns, shifting energy M&A to regional deals rather than global.
• Rising interest rates, making PE firms more selective in deal-making.

What Replaces Fully Globalized M&A?

The new M&A landscape (2024–2025) is shifting to “international” rather than fully global:
• Companies still expand globally but focus more on “friendly” regions.
• Governments protect critical sectors (tech, energy, food security), making some cross-border M&A harder.
• Supply chains become more regional (e.g., Europe focuses on EU-based acquisitions, US nearshores to Latin America).

What are the trends now for 2025: stabilization, AI, consolidation, be ready for turning point.

Indications for stabilizing economic conditions:

While in 2024, because of the change and uncertainty, M&A deal percentage to global GDP represented a historical low; there are indications that the situation is stabilizing. 2025 could be a turning point for M&A.

According to Bain Global M&A Report 2025:
• Interest Rate Declines: U.S. and European interest rates start to ease, creating a more favorable financing environment for M&A activity.
• Narrowing Buyer-Seller Valuation Gap: Sellers have adjusted pricing expectations, making dealmaking more feasible.
• Regulatory Predictability: While scrutiny remains, regulatory bodies are signaling a return to more consistent approval processes.
• Improved Market Confidence: 60% of surveyed executives believe M&A will be a key growth driver in 2025, a notable increase from 2024.
• Private Equity Rebound: PE-driven deal value grew 29% YoY, indicating renewed investor confidence.
• Sector-Specific Growth: Energy, industrials, and financial services sectors have returned to pre-2020 M&A levels.

What implications on strategy level?

Invitation for prudency, paying attention to details, be agile and ready to adapt to
• intense regulatory scrutiny: by spending more time up front scanning for all the regulatory risks
• less easy market: getting better at deal making by being more active, by improving the process, putting more focus on revenue synergy rather than just cost synergy, more pre-deal analysis than PMI.
• geopolitical shifts: reduce dependency of supply chains, retargeting region, for example Southeast Asia instead of China or Europe.

To achieve improvements, better tools may be needed, that leads to the next point.

Embracing AI tools

AI now is no longer just a trend, we find ourselves in the same situation with internet end of the 90’s, the usage of AI shows immense potential and it’s here to stay.

More details on the advantages, pros, cons, risks and how to manages them on the next article but there are 3 mains points:
• AI has immense potential as a Tactical Enabler in M&A: helping streamline processes, reduce costs, and improve decision-making accuracy.
• Without AI you will be left out: amongst M&A practitioners current adoption is 20% (expect 50 in 2027), with PE firms leading at 60% (source Bain Global M&A report 2025). AI tools will help getting better deals by screening more and more accurately, accelerating the administrative works to close good deal and get out of bad deals faster.
• Time for starting is now: actively test, refine, adapt AI tools to organizational needs while carefully managing corporate and data risks.

Conclusion After a record low of three decades in 2024, indicators show that the shifting phase is stabilizing and 2025 could be a turning point. Market paradigms invite to prudency and refinement of strategies by optimizing internally and navigating external risks. AI tools offers high potential for improvement and it’s now time for testing and adjustment.